ProbGap
Find the probabilities the market may be getting wrong.
Independent forecasts compared with prediction-market consensus.
How ProbGap works
We don’t predict everything. We focus on markets where our independent forecast meaningfully differs from consensus.
01 - Scan
We monitor prediction markets across AI, tech and macro.
02 - Forecast
We build an independent probability using base rates, current evidence and external consensus.
03 - Compare
We highlight the largest gaps between our forecast and market consensus.
When ProbGap disagrees with the market
Market
38%
ProbGap
54%
Gap
+16 pts
Example: ProbGap sees a 16-point probability gap.
Featured Forecasts
Latest Probability Updates
Why ProbGap
Independent forecasts
Our probabilities are built independently before comparison with the market.
Public track record
Every published forecast is timestamped and scored after resolution.
No cherry-picking
Forecast revisions remain visible and historical probabilities are preserved.
Focused coverage
We concentrate on AI, tech and macro markets where meaningful evidence exists.
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