ProbGap publishes independent probability forecasts and compares them with prediction-market consensus.
Every published forecast is timestamped, preserved and scored after resolution. Forecast revisions remain visible, and losing forecasts are not removed.
This page will track ProbGap’s performance over time using probabilistic scoring rather than simple win/loss counts.
Current status
ProbGap is currently building its initial forecast history.
No resolved forecasts are available yet.
Resolved forecasts0
ProbGap Brier Score—
Market Brier Score—
CalibrationComing soon
Forecast archiveComing soon
Method
ProbGap compares its own forecast with the market probability observed at the same timestamp. Once an event resolves, both are scored using the Brier Score. Lower scores are better.
No cherry-picking. No deleted misses. Every published forecast stays in the record.