About ProbGap
ProbGap is an independent forecasting publication focused on the gap between market probabilities and our own probability estimates.
Prediction markets tell you what the market currently believes. ProbGap asks a different question:
What should the probability actually be?
For each forecast, we compare the current market-implied probability with our independent estimate and highlight the difference between them.
Market probability → ProbGap forecast → The Gap
Our goal is to identify situations where the market may be too confident, too cautious, or simply mispricing uncertainty.
ProbGap covers selected markets across economics, politics, technology, geopolitics, financial markets, and other areas where probabilities can be meaningfully assessed.
We aim to be transparent about our forecasts. Each published forecast includes a dated probability estimate and, where possible, is later updated with the final outcome.
ProbGap is not affiliated with any prediction market, bookmaker, exchange, political organization, or financial institution unless explicitly stated.
ProbGap is about probabilities, not certainty.