Oct 23, 2026
Markets price an 82% chance of a rate hike. Our independent forecast is 65%. Here’s why the latest inflation data may not tell the whole story.
Oct 10, 2026
Two new polls put Bolsonaro ahead. But what do they actually tell us about the October 25 outcome?
Oct 8, 2026
New polling will test the assumptions behind our October 5 forecast revision.
Oct 5, 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro beat the polls and won the first round. Prediction markets now make him an overwhelming favorite.
Oct 3, 2026
The prediction market has a clear favorite. Does the polling evidence support it?
Oct 1, 2026
The market has climbed from 51% to 70%. ProbGap remains at 64%.
ProbGap published 38% when the market was at 65%. Today the market is around 40%.
Prediction markets have cut the probability of an October Fed hike to around 43%. ProbGap remains at 61%.
Sep 30, 2026
The market gives Anthropic roughly a 63% chance of trading publicly by November 30. ProbGap puts it at 52%.
Sep 28, 2026
The physical restart has happened. The prediction market is waiting for something else — an official Saudi government announcement.