The market gives Anthropic roughly a 63% chance of being publicly traded by November 30. ProbGap puts it at 52%.
Anthropic is getting very close to the public markets.
But there is an important difference between:
“Anthropic is going public soon.”
and:
“Anthropic will be trading publicly by November 30.”
Prediction markets may be pricing the second statement too confidently.
Today we are opening PG-0010.
Market: ~63%
ProbGap: 52%
Gap: −11 percentage points
The IPO is clearly real
Anthropic confidentially submitted its draft S-1 to the SEC in June.
Since then, the process has moved significantly further.
Reuters has now obtained Anthropic's confidential IPO prospectus, revealing an extraordinary amount of detail about the company — from its financial performance and governance to more than $500 billion in long-term computing and infrastructure commitments. Anthropic
This is no longer vague IPO speculation.
Anthropic is preparing to become a public company.
The question for this market is timing.
The deadline matters
Polymarket currently gives Anthropic approximately a 63% probability of being listed and trading by November 30.
The market then rises to roughly 81% by December 31. CryptoSlate
That curve tells us something interesting.
The market is not especially uncertain about whether Anthropic will IPO in 2026.
It is placing a large amount of probability specifically into November.
That is where ProbGap disagrees.
The timeline has already slipped
Earlier reporting suggested Anthropic could begin marketing the IPO in mid-October.
More recent Reuters reporting says the listing could instead take place after the U.S. midterm elections in November. Reuters
The election is November 3.
That still leaves enough time to complete an offering before November 30.
But it leaves considerably less margin for another delay.
And as of September 29, Anthropic's IPO paperwork remained confidential rather than publicly disclosed. Reuters
🔒 ProbGap forecast
ProbGap identifies where independent forecasts differ from prediction-market prices — and tracks every forecast through resolution.
Sources: Polymarket, Reuters, Anthropic. Market probabilities change continuously.