Independent forecasts and probability analysis from ProbGap, comparing market-implied probabilities with our own estimates.
Prediction Markets
+3
Oct 23, 2026
•
6 min read
Markets price an 82% chance of a rate hike. Our independent forecast is 65%. Here’s why the latest inflation data may not tell the whole story.
Oct 10, 2026
3 min read
Two new polls put Bolsonaro ahead. But what do they actually tell us about the October 25 outcome?
Oct 8, 2026
2 min read
New polling will test the assumptions behind our October 5 forecast revision.
+4
Oct 5, 2026
4 min read
Flávio Bolsonaro beat the polls and won the first round. Prediction markets now make him an overwhelming favorite.
Oct 3, 2026
The prediction market has a clear favorite. Does the polling evidence support it?
GDP
+5
Oct 1, 2026
1 min read
The market has climbed from 51% to 70%. ProbGap remains at 64%.
ProbGap published 38% when the market was at 65%. Today the market is around 40%.
Prediction markets have cut the probability of an October Fed hike to around 43%. ProbGap remains at 61%.
Sep 30, 2026
The market gives Anthropic roughly a 63% chance of trading publicly by November 30. ProbGap puts it at 52%.
Sep 28, 2026
The physical restart has happened. The prediction market is waiting for something else — an official Saudi government announcement.
Sep 27, 2026
The market was at 51% when we published. Today it is at 73% — moving from 13 points below ProbGap to 9 points above it.
Sep 25, 2026
The market still says 65%. ProbGap remains at 38% — and Ottawa is putting less emphasis on “associate membership.”
Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline has restarted. But this prediction market needs something else: an official government announcement.
October Fed hike odds have climbed from 51% to around 68%, moving past our published 61% forecast.
Sep 23, 2026
The market has jumped from 51% to 74% on U.S. Q3 GDP growth of at least 3%. ProbGap's latest forecast remains 64%. What changed?
Iran says it could reopen the Strait within seven days. The market remains deeply skeptical. ProbGap sees a larger diplomatic window.
The market gave a qualifying U.S.–Iran diplomatic meeting just a 14% chance. ProbGap said 24%. Less than a day later, the event occurred.
Sep 22, 2026
Trump says communication with Iran is continuing. It doesn't resolve the market — but it strengthens the case for keeping our forecast above it.
Reuters says crude is already flowing through the East–West Pipeline. But the prediction market requires an official Saudi announcement. We’re raising our forecast from 48% to 72%.
Trump has opened the door to meeting Iran’s president as both leaders gather in New York. The market says 14%. ProbGap puts the chance at 24%.
Prediction markets have moved another three points since our analysis, as new polling adds pressure to the Republican midterm picture.
Hawkish Fed comments strengthen the case for another rate increase. The market has moved back toward ProbGap — but an 8-point gap remains.
Sep 21, 2026
Prediction markets have moved sharply toward Democratic Senate control. But seven Toss Up races mean the headline probability hides a much more complicated state-by-state path.
Energy
Sep 20, 2026
New damage assessments and fresh attacks around Yanbu have changed the picture. ProbGap cuts its forecast from 64% to 48% — but still sees a +13-point gap.
Sep 19, 2026
October hike odds have moved from 51% to 56% since our forecast. ProbGap remains at 61%.
