Market: 70% · ProbGap: 64% · Gap: −6 pts
The market has caught up with — and now moved beyond — our Q3 GDP forecast.
When we updated PG-0005, prediction markets assigned a 51% probability that U.S. real GDP growth would reach at least 3.0% annualized in Q3.
ProbGap was more bullish:
64%.
That gave us a +13 point forecast gap.
Today, the market is around 70%.
Our published forecast remains 64%.
The gap has flipped.
What changed?
Incoming U.S. data has continued to show a surprisingly resilient economy.
Consumer spending has remained firm, business investment remains strong, and earlier GDP data has been revised higher.
Those developments have pushed prediction markets toward a much stronger Q3 growth outcome.
But not every signal has moved in the same direction.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate was recently cut from 5.0% to 3.7%, largely after a much wider-than-expected U.S. goods trade deficit increased the projected drag from net exports.
That's still comfortably above the market's 3.0% threshold.
But it is also a reminder that the Q3 picture remains sensitive to incoming data.
The forecast gap has flipped
At the PG-0005 update:
Market: 51%
ProbGap: 64%
Gap: +13 pts
Today:
Market: ~70%
ProbGap: 64%
Gap: −6 pts
The market has moved 19 percentage points since our update and now sits six points above the ProbGap forecast.
We are not revising the forecast simply because the market has crossed it.
The original 64% estimate remains our current published probability.
That's an important part of a transparent forecast record: documenting when the market moves toward us — and when it moves past us.
PG-0005 remains open.
PG-0005 · OPEN
Forecasts are probability estimates, not financial advice.