Market: 40% · ProbGap: 38% · Gap: −2 pts
Sometimes the most important forecast update isn't a new prediction.
It's watching the market move toward an old one.
When ProbGap published PG-0007, prediction markets assigned a 65% probability that Canada would become an EU “associate member” — or obtain an equivalent formal status — by the end of 2027.
Our forecast was much lower:
38%.
That created one of our largest published gaps:
−27 percentage points.
Today, the market is around 40%.
The gap has almost disappeared.
What happened?
The political momentum behind deeper Canada–EU cooperation remains real.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen opened the door to Canada becoming the EU's first “associate member”, while Canada has continued pursuing significantly deeper economic, security and strategic ties with Europe.
But the prediction market resolves on something more demanding than closer relations.
It requires Canada and the EU to formally establish an associate-membership status — or an equivalent arrangement — through a written diplomatic instrument before the deadline.
Statements of intent, negotiations and sector-specific agreements are not enough.
That distinction was central to the original ProbGap thesis.
The convergence
At publication:
Market: 65%
ProbGap: 38%
Gap: −27 pts
Today:
Market: ~40%
ProbGap: 38%
Gap: −2 pts
The market has moved roughly 25 points toward the ProbGap forecast.
We are not declaring the forecast resolved.
We are not revising the 38% estimate.
And this remains a relatively small prediction market, so individual price moves should be interpreted carefully.
But the convergence is substantial enough to document.
That's the point of maintaining a timestamped forecast record: not just publishing probabilities, but showing what happens afterward.
PG-0007 · OPEN
Forecasts are probability estimates, not financial advice.