Sep 27, 2026
The market was at 51% when we published. Today it is at 73% — moving from 13 points below ProbGap to 9 points above it.
Sep 25, 2026
The market still says 65%. ProbGap remains at 38% — and Ottawa is putting less emphasis on “associate membership.”
Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline has restarted. But this prediction market needs something else: an official government announcement.
October Fed hike odds have climbed from 51% to around 68%, moving past our published 61% forecast.
Sep 23, 2026
The market has jumped from 51% to 74% on U.S. Q3 GDP growth of at least 3%. ProbGap's latest forecast remains 64%. What changed?
Iran says it could reopen the Strait within seven days. The market remains deeply skeptical. ProbGap sees a larger diplomatic window.
The market gave a qualifying U.S.–Iran diplomatic meeting just a 14% chance. ProbGap said 24%. Less than a day later, the event occurred.
Sep 22, 2026
Trump says communication with Iran is continuing. It doesn't resolve the market — but it strengthens the case for keeping our forecast above it.
Reuters says crude is already flowing through the East–West Pipeline. But the prediction market requires an official Saudi announcement. We’re raising our forecast from 48% to 72%.
Trump has opened the door to meeting Iran’s president as both leaders gather in New York. The market says 14%. ProbGap puts the chance at 24%.