Sep 22, 2026
Prediction markets have moved another three points since our analysis, as new polling adds pressure to the Republican midterm picture.
Hawkish Fed comments strengthen the case for another rate increase. The market has moved back toward ProbGap — but an 8-point gap remains.
Sep 21, 2026
Prediction markets have moved sharply toward Democratic Senate control. But seven Toss Up races mean the headline probability hides a much more complicated state-by-state path.
Sep 20, 2026
New damage assessments and fresh attacks around Yanbu have changed the picture. ProbGap cuts its forecast from 64% to 48% — but still sees a +13-point gap.
Sep 19, 2026
October hike odds have moved from 51% to 56% since our forecast. ProbGap remains at 61%.
The market has moved higher, but the latest repair timeline still points to a meaningful chance of a September restart.
The market moved from roughly 51% to 5% after new reporting shifted the expected IPO into November.
Sep 18, 2026
The announcement is real. The legal status isn’t. Our forecast is 38%.
The market has moved from roughly 10% to 49% in little more than a week. Our forecast is 35%.
Polymarket prices a Democratic House at 90% and Senate control at 60%. The sweep market is now trading almost entirely on the Senate.