The Fed Just Hiked. Will It Do It Again in October?

Prediction markets put another 25 bp Fed hike at 51%. Our forecast is 61% — leaving a 10-point gap.

US Q3 GDP: The Market Is Moving — But Has It Moved Enough?

Prediction markets put the odds of ≥3.0% Q3 growth at 51%. Our forecast is 64% — leaving a 13-point gap.

Saudi Pipeline Update: Market Jumps Past Our 64% Forecast

Polymarket has surged to 67% for a restart by September 30 — effectively closing, and now slightly reversing, our original +17 point gap.

Resolved: The Fed Hiked 25bp — ProbGap Was at 94%

Prediction markets priced the hike near 84% when we published. ProbGap put it at 94%. The Fed has now delivered the 25bp increase.

Saudi Pipeline Restart by September 30? ProbGap Sees a +17 Point Gap

The market puts a restart near 47%. ProbGap forecasts 64% — because partial operation is enough to resolve the contract Yes.

CLARITY Act Fails Senate Vote — Our Forecast Drops to 5%

The bill failed 49–50, far short of the 60 votes needed. The market has fallen to roughly 7%, and ProbGap now puts 2026 passage at just 5%.

Will the Fed Raise Rates Tomorrow? ProbGap Says 94%

Prediction markets put a 25bp Fed hike near 84%. Our forecast is higher — creating a +10 percentage point gap ahead of tomorrow’s decision.

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CLARITY Act Jumps to 31% — Is the Market Now Too Optimistic?

Polymarket has surged from 17% to roughly 31% after a revised bipartisan push. ProbGap puts the chance at 24% — a −7 point gap ahead of today’s Senate vote.