Saudi Pipeline Update: Market Jumps Past Our 64% Forecast
Current market probability: 67%
Original ProbGap forecast: 64%
Current gap: −3 pp
Original market probability: ~47%
The Saudi East–West Pipeline market has moved sharply.
When ProbGap published its forecast, the market was pricing a restart by September 30 at roughly 47%.
Our forecast was 64%, creating a +17 percentage point gap.
The market has now moved to 67%.
That means the original gap has effectively disappeared.
What changed?
The latest information directly supports the core argument behind our original forecast.
Polymarket’s resolution rules explicitly state that partial or reduced-capacity operation qualifies as Yes.
At the same time, market context now points to Saudi Aramco targeting a partial restart of roughly half the pipeline’s capacity within days, even though full restoration may take around six weeks.
That distinction — partial operation versus full repair — was central to our original thesis.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright had also said the pipeline should be operational again within days, while other estimates suggested full repairs could take several weeks.
The gap has closed
Original market: ~47%
ProbGap forecast: 64%
Original gap: +17 pp
Current market: 67%
The market has now moved slightly above our forecast.
That does not resolve the contract, and an official Saudi government announcement is still required. Reports about expected future operations do not count by themselves.
But the repricing is important.
The market has moved toward the probability range ProbGap identified earlier — after new information strengthened the case for a partial restart.
What we do next
We are not changing the original 64% forecast retroactively.
That remains part of the public record.
From here, we wait for either:
an official Saudi announcement that the pipeline is operating, or
new evidence that materially changes the probability again.
That is how ProbGap intends to track forecasts: preserve the original call, document new information, and show how the market responds.
Original market: ~47%
ProbGap: 64%
Current market: 67%
Status: Open
Forecast update published September 16, 2026.