CLARITY Act Fails Senate Vote — Our Forecast Drops to 5%

Market probability: ~7%
ProbGap forecast: 5%
Gap: −2 percentage points
Previous ProbGap forecast: 24%

The key event we were waiting for has arrived — and it materially changes the forecast.

The U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on Tuesday, with the procedural vote ending 49–50.

The bill needed 60 votes to move forward. It wasn't close.

Before the vote, ProbGap assigned a 24% probability that the CLARITY Act would become law before the end of 2026.

We are now cutting that forecast to 5%.

This was not a final vote on the bill itself.

But failing to clear the procedural hurdle dramatically narrows the remaining path to enactment this year.

The legislation would now need to be revived, a new political agreement would have to emerge, and the Senate would still need to complete the legislative process before year-end.

Reuters reports that there is little chance of a near-term revival, particularly with the November midterm elections approaching and Congress preparing for recess.

Prediction markets reacted immediately.

Polymarket's probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 fell to roughly 7%, down from around 18% before the vote and above 30% a day earlier.

CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026: 5%
Does not become law in 2026: 95%

Market: ~7%
ProbGap: 5%

The important point isn't the two-point gap.

It's the update.

Our original 24% forecast reflected the possibility that the latest concessions could produce enough bipartisan support to move the bill forward.

That did not happen.

New information should change a forecast — and this result changes ours substantially.

The probability is not zero. Congress can reconsider failed procedural votes and political negotiations can restart.

But with the legislative calendar tightening, we now view enactment before December 31 as a low-probability tail outcome.

Previous forecast: 24%
Updated forecast: 5%
Market: ~7%
Gap: −2 pp

Forecast updated September 15, 2026.