RESOLVED ✅
Yesterday, prediction markets were pricing roughly an 84% probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 25 basis points.
ProbGap was higher.
Market: ~84%
ProbGap forecast: 94%
Gap: +10 percentage points
Today, the Federal Reserve raised its target rate by 25 basis points, taking the federal funds target range from 3.50–3.75% to 3.75–4.00%.
Outcome: YES ✅
The forecast therefore resolved in the direction of the ProbGap call.
Why this matters
ProbGap is built around a simple idea: compare what prediction markets are pricing with an independent probability estimate, then track what happens.
The important part isn't getting to say “we were right” after one event. A 94% forecast cannot be validated by a single binary outcome. The value comes from recording forecasts before resolution and evaluating them across many events over time.
This is now one completed data point in that track record.
Forecast record
Market at publication: ~84%
ProbGap forecast: 94%
Gap: +10pp
Published: September 15, 2026
Resolved: September 16, 2026
Outcome: 25bp Fed hike ✅
More forecasts. More resolutions. A track record you can actually inspect.