2026 Midterms

Prediction Markets

Senate Odds Jump Again: Democrats Hit 64%

Sep 22, 2026

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2 min read

Senate Odds Jump Again: Democrats Hit 64%

Prediction markets have moved another three points since our analysis, as new polling adds pressure to the Republican midterm picture.

ProbGap Research

Prediction Markets

The Market Gives Democrats a 61% Chance of Taking the Senate. Does the State Math Support It?

Sep 21, 2026

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3 min read

The Market Gives Democrats a 61% Chance of Taking the Senate. Does the State Math Support It?

Prediction markets have moved sharply toward Democratic Senate control. But seven Toss Up races mean the headline probability hides a much more complicated state-by-state path.

ProbGap Research

Prediction Markets

Democratic Sweep Hits 60%. The Senate Is the Whole Story.

Sep 18, 2026

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2 min read

Democratic Sweep Hits 60%. The Senate Is the Whole Story.

Polymarket prices a Democratic House at 90% and Senate control at 60%. The sweep market is now trading almost entirely on the Senate.

ProbGap Research