Prediction Markets
+3
Oct 23, 2026
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6 min read
Markets price an 82% chance of a rate hike. Our independent forecast is 65%. Here’s why the latest inflation data may not tell the whole story.
Oct 10, 2026
3 min read
Two new polls put Bolsonaro ahead. But what do they actually tell us about the October 25 outcome?
Sep 25, 2026
2 min read
Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline has restarted. But this prediction market needs something else: an official government announcement.
+4
Sep 18, 2026
The announcement is real. The legal status isn’t. Our forecast is 38%.
The market has moved from roughly 10% to 49% in little more than a week. Our forecast is 35%.
Prediction markets put another 25 bp Fed hike at 51%. Our forecast is 61% — leaving a 10-point gap.
GDP
1 min read
Prediction markets put the odds of ≥3.0% Q3 growth at 51%. Our forecast is 64% — leaving a 13-point gap.
Energy
Sep 16, 2026
The market puts a restart near 47%. ProbGap forecasts 64% — because partial operation is enough to resolve the contract Yes.
Federal Reserve
+2
Sep 15, 2026
Prediction markets put a 25bp Fed hike near 84%. Our forecast is higher — creating a +10 percentage point gap ahead of tomorrow’s decision.
Forecast
+1
Sep 14, 2026
Every published forecast, preserved and scored against prediction-market consensus.
