Energy
+3
Sep 16, 2026
•
2 min read
The market puts a restart near 47%. ProbGap forecasts 64% — because partial operation is enough to resolve the contract Yes.
Federal Reserve
+2
Sep 15, 2026
1 min read
Prediction markets put a 25bp Fed hike near 84%. Our forecast is higher — creating a +10 percentage point gap ahead of tomorrow’s decision.
