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Geopolitics

Prediction Markets

+4

A U.S.–Iran Hormuz Deal by September 30? The Market Says Just 9%

Sep 23, 2026

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2 min read

A U.S.–Iran Hormuz Deal by September 30? The Market Says Just 9%

Iran says it could reopen the Strait within seven days. The market remains deeply skeptical. ProbGap sees a larger diplomatic window.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

Prediction Markets

+4

Saudi Pipeline Is Reportedly Running Again — But the Market Is Still at 30%

Sep 22, 2026

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2 min read

Saudi Pipeline Is Reportedly Running Again — But the Market Is Still at 30%

Reuters says crude is already flowing through the East–West Pipeline. But the prediction market requires an official Saudi announcement. We’re raising our forecast from 48% to 72%.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

Prediction Markets

+4

U.S.–Iran Talks by September 30? The Market Says Just 14%

Sep 22, 2026

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2 min read

U.S.–Iran Talks by September 30? The Market Says Just 14%

Trump has opened the door to meeting Iran’s president as both leaders gather in New York. The market says 14%. ProbGap puts the chance at 24%.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

Prediction Markets

+4

Canada–EU “Associate Membership” Is Priced at 65%. We Think That’s Too High.

Sep 18, 2026

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2 min read

Canada–EU “Associate Membership” Is Priced at 65%. We Think That’s Too High.

The announcement is real. The legal status isn’t. Our forecast is 38%.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

Energy

+3

Saudi Pipeline Restart by September 30? ProbGap Sees a +17 Point Gap

Sep 16, 2026

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2 min read

Saudi Pipeline Restart by September 30? ProbGap Sees a +17 Point Gap

The market puts a restart near 47%. ProbGap forecasts 64% — because partial operation is enough to resolve the contract Yes.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

ProbGap

Independent forecasts that challenge prediction-market consensus.

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