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Monetary Policy

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October Fed Hike Odds Rebound to 53% — Moving Back Toward Our 61% Forecast

Sep 22, 2026

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1 min read

October Fed Hike Odds Rebound to 53% — Moving Back Toward Our 61% Forecast

Hawkish Fed comments strengthen the case for another rate increase. The market has moved back toward ProbGap — but an 8-point gap remains.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

ProbGap

Independent forecasts that challenge prediction-market consensus.

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