Politics

Prediction Markets

PG-0011 Update: Bolsonaro Surges to 84% — Has the Market Gone Too Far?

Oct 5, 2026

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4 min read

PG-0011 Update: Bolsonaro Surges to 84% — Has the Market Gone Too Far?

Flávio Bolsonaro beat the polls and won the first round. Prediction markets now make him an overwhelming favorite.

ProbGap Research

Prediction Markets

PG-0011: Brazil Election — Markets Give Flávio Bolsonaro 57%

Oct 3, 2026

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4 min read

PG-0011: Brazil Election — Markets Give Flávio Bolsonaro 57%

The prediction market has a clear favorite. Does the polling evidence support it?

ProbGap Research

Prediction Markets

Senate Odds Jump Again: Democrats Hit 64%

Sep 22, 2026

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2 min read

Senate Odds Jump Again: Democrats Hit 64%

Prediction markets have moved another three points since our analysis, as new polling adds pressure to the Republican midterm picture.

ProbGap Research

Prediction Markets

The Market Gives Democrats a 61% Chance of Taking the Senate. Does the State Math Support It?

Sep 21, 2026

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3 min read

The Market Gives Democrats a 61% Chance of Taking the Senate. Does the State Math Support It?

Prediction markets have moved sharply toward Democratic Senate control. But seven Toss Up races mean the headline probability hides a much more complicated state-by-state path.

ProbGap Research