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Strait of Hormuz

Prediction Markets

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A U.S.–Iran Hormuz Deal by September 30? The Market Says Just 9%

Sep 23, 2026

•

2 min read

A U.S.–Iran Hormuz Deal by September 30? The Market Says Just 9%

Iran says it could reopen the Strait within seven days. The market remains deeply skeptical. ProbGap sees a larger diplomatic window.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

ProbGap

Independent forecasts that challenge prediction-market consensus.

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