GDP
+3
Sep 27, 2026
•
1 min read
The market was at 51% when we published. Today it is at 73% — moving from 13 points below ProbGap to 9 points above it.
Prediction Markets
+4
Sep 19, 2026
October hike odds have moved from 51% to 56% since our forecast. ProbGap remains at 61%.
Sep 18, 2026
2 min read
Prediction markets put another 25 bp Fed hike at 51%. Our forecast is 61% — leaving a 10-point gap.
Prediction markets put the odds of ≥3.0% Q3 growth at 51%. Our forecast is 64% — leaving a 13-point gap.
