Prediction Markets
+3
Oct 23, 2026
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6 min read
Markets price an 82% chance of a rate hike. Our independent forecast is 65%. Here’s why the latest inflation data may not tell the whole story.
+4
Oct 1, 2026
1 min read
ProbGap published 38% when the market was at 65%. Today the market is around 40%.
Sep 25, 2026
2 min read
The market still says 65%. ProbGap remains at 38% — and Ottawa is putting less emphasis on “associate membership.”
Sep 18, 2026
The announcement is real. The legal status isn’t. Our forecast is 38%.
