Forecast Update
+3
Sep 15, 2026
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1 min read
The bill failed 49–50, far short of the 60 votes needed. The market has fallen to roughly 7%, and ProbGap now puts 2026 passage at just 5%.
3 min read
Polymarket has surged from 17% to roughly 31% after a revised bipartisan push. ProbGap puts the chance at 24% — a −7 point gap ahead of today’s Senate vote.
