Energy
+4
Sep 20, 2026
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3 min read
New damage assessments and fresh attacks around Yanbu have changed the picture. ProbGap cuts its forecast from 64% to 48% — but still sees a +13-point gap.
Sep 19, 2026
1 min read
The market has moved higher, but the latest repair timeline still points to a meaningful chance of a September restart.
+2
Sep 16, 2026
Polymarket has surged to 67% for a restart by September 30 — effectively closing, and now slightly reversing, our original +17 point gap.
+3
2 min read
The market puts a restart near 47%. ProbGap forecasts 64% — because partial operation is enough to resolve the contract Yes.
