Prediction Markets
+4
Oct 1, 2026
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1 min read
Prediction markets have cut the probability of an October Fed hike to around 43%. ProbGap remains at 61%.
+3
Sep 25, 2026
October Fed hike odds have climbed from 51% to around 68%, moving past our published 61% forecast.
Sep 22, 2026
Hawkish Fed comments strengthen the case for another rate increase. The market has moved back toward ProbGap — but an 8-point gap remains.
Sep 19, 2026
October hike odds have moved from 51% to 56% since our forecast. ProbGap remains at 61%.
Sep 18, 2026
2 min read
Prediction markets put another 25 bp Fed hike at 51%. Our forecast is 61% — leaving a 10-point gap.
Federal Reserve
Sep 16, 2026
Prediction markets priced the hike near 84% when we published. ProbGap put it at 94%. The Fed has now delivered the 25bp increase.
+2
Sep 15, 2026
Prediction markets put a 25bp Fed hike near 84%. Our forecast is higher — creating a +10 percentage point gap ahead of tomorrow’s decision.
