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GDP

GDP

+5

The Market Has Moved Past ProbGap on Q3 GDP

Oct 1, 2026

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1 min read

The Market Has Moved Past ProbGap on Q3 GDP

The market has climbed from 51% to 70%. ProbGap remains at 64%.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

GDP

+3

The Market Moved 22 Points. PG-0005’s Gap Has Flipped

Sep 27, 2026

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1 min read

The Market Moved 22 Points. PG-0005’s Gap Has Flipped

The market was at 51% when we published. Today it is at 73% — moving from 13 points below ProbGap to 9 points above it.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

GDP

+4

US Q3 GDP: The Market Is Moving — But Has It Moved Enough?

Sep 18, 2026

•

1 min read

US Q3 GDP: The Market Is Moving — But Has It Moved Enough?

Prediction markets put the odds of ≥3.0% Q3 growth at 51%. Our forecast is 64% — leaving a 13-point gap.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

ProbGap

Independent forecasts that challenge prediction-market consensus.

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