Prediction Markets
+4
Oct 1, 2026
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1 min read
Prediction markets have cut the probability of an October Fed hike to around 43%. ProbGap remains at 61%.
Sep 22, 2026
2 min read
Prediction markets have moved another three points since our analysis, as new polling adds pressure to the Republican midterm picture.
Sep 19, 2026
October hike odds have moved from 51% to 56% since our forecast. ProbGap remains at 61%.
Energy
The market has moved higher, but the latest repair timeline still points to a meaningful chance of a September restart.
The market moved from roughly 51% to 5% after new reporting shifted the expected IPO into November.
Sep 18, 2026
Polymarket prices a Democratic House at 90% and Senate control at 60%. The sweep market is now trading almost entirely on the Senate.
