Resolved
Prediction Markets
+4
Sep 23, 2026
•
1 min read
The market gave a qualifying U.S.–Iran diplomatic meeting just a 14% chance. ProbGap said 24%. Less than a day later, the event occurred.
Federal Reserve
+3
Sep 16, 2026
Prediction markets priced the hike near 84% when we published. ProbGap put it at 94%. The Fed has now delivered the 25bp increase.
Forecast
+1
Sep 14, 2026
2 min read
Every published forecast, preserved and scored against prediction-market consensus.
