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Federal Reserve

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Resolved: The Fed Hiked 25bp — ProbGap Was at 94%

Sep 16, 2026

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1 min read

Resolved: The Fed Hiked 25bp — ProbGap Was at 94%

Prediction markets priced the hike near 84% when we published. ProbGap put it at 94%. The Fed has now delivered the 25bp increase.

ProbGap Research
ProbGap Research

ProbGap

Independent forecasts that challenge prediction-market consensus.

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