Macro
Federal Reserve
+3
Sep 16, 2026
•
1 min read
Prediction markets priced the hike near 84% when we published. ProbGap put it at 94%. The Fed has now delivered the 25bp increase.
+2
Sep 15, 2026
Prediction markets put a 25bp Fed hike near 84%. Our forecast is higher — creating a +10 percentage point gap ahead of tomorrow’s decision.
