Macro
Prediction Markets
+3
Oct 23, 2026
•
6 min read
Markets price an 82% chance of a rate hike. Our independent forecast is 65%. Here’s why the latest inflation data may not tell the whole story.
GDP
+5
Oct 1, 2026
1 min read
The market has climbed from 51% to 70%. ProbGap remains at 64%.
+4
Prediction markets have cut the probability of an October Fed hike to around 43%. ProbGap remains at 61%.
Sep 25, 2026
October Fed hike odds have climbed from 51% to around 68%, moving past our published 61% forecast.
Sep 23, 2026
2 min read
The market has jumped from 51% to 74% on U.S. Q3 GDP growth of at least 3%. ProbGap's latest forecast remains 64%. What changed?
Sep 18, 2026
Prediction markets put the odds of ≥3.0% Q3 growth at 51%. Our forecast is 64% — leaving a 13-point gap.
Federal Reserve
Sep 16, 2026
Prediction markets priced the hike near 84% when we published. ProbGap put it at 94%. The Fed has now delivered the 25bp increase.
+2
Sep 15, 2026
Prediction markets put a 25bp Fed hike near 84%. Our forecast is higher — creating a +10 percentage point gap ahead of tomorrow’s decision.
