GDP
+5
Oct 1, 2026
•
1 min read
The market has climbed from 51% to 70%. ProbGap remains at 64%.
Prediction Markets
+4
Sep 23, 2026
2 min read
Iran says it could reopen the Strait within seven days. The market remains deeply skeptical. ProbGap sees a larger diplomatic window.
The market gave a qualifying U.S.–Iran diplomatic meeting just a 14% chance. ProbGap said 24%. Less than a day later, the event occurred.
Sep 22, 2026
Trump says communication with Iran is continuing. It doesn't resolve the market — but it strengthens the case for keeping our forecast above it.
Trump has opened the door to meeting Iran’s president as both leaders gather in New York. The market says 14%. ProbGap puts the chance at 24%.
