Track Record
GDP
+5
Oct 1, 2026
•
1 min read
The market has climbed from 51% to 70%. ProbGap remains at 64%.
Prediction Markets
+4
ProbGap published 38% when the market was at 65%. Today the market is around 40%.
Sep 23, 2026
2 min read
The market has jumped from 51% to 74% on U.S. Q3 GDP growth of at least 3%. ProbGap's latest forecast remains 64%. What changed?
The market gave a qualifying U.S.–Iran diplomatic meeting just a 14% chance. ProbGap said 24%. Less than a day later, the event occurred.
Federal Reserve
+3
Sep 16, 2026
Prediction markets priced the hike near 84% when we published. ProbGap put it at 94%. The Fed has now delivered the 25bp increase.
