Forecast Update

Energy

Saudi Pipeline Update: Market Jumps Past Our 64% Forecast

Sep 16, 2026

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1 min read

Saudi Pipeline Update: Market Jumps Past Our 64% Forecast

Polymarket has surged to 67% for a restart by September 30 — effectively closing, and now slightly reversing, our original +17 point gap.

ProbGap Research

Forecast Update

CLARITY Act Fails Senate Vote — Our Forecast Drops to 5%

Sep 15, 2026

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1 min read

CLARITY Act Fails Senate Vote — Our Forecast Drops to 5%

The bill failed 49–50, far short of the 60 votes needed. The market has fallen to roughly 7%, and ProbGap now puts 2026 passage at just 5%.

ProbGap Research

Forecast Update

CLARITY Act Jumps to 31% — Is the Market Now Too Optimistic?

Sep 15, 2026

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3 min read

CLARITY Act Jumps to 31% — Is the Market Now Too Optimistic?

Polymarket has surged from 17% to roughly 31% after a revised bipartisan push. ProbGap puts the chance at 24% — a −7 point gap ahead of today’s Senate vote.

ProbGap Research