Prediction Markets
+3
Oct 8, 2026
•
2 min read
New polling will test the assumptions behind our October 5 forecast revision.
+4
Oct 5, 2026
4 min read
Flávio Bolsonaro beat the polls and won the first round. Prediction markets now make him an overwhelming favorite.
GDP
+5
Oct 1, 2026
1 min read
The market has climbed from 51% to 70%. ProbGap remains at 64%.
ProbGap published 38% when the market was at 65%. Today the market is around 40%.
Sep 28, 2026
The physical restart has happened. The prediction market is waiting for something else — an official Saudi government announcement.
Sep 27, 2026
The market was at 51% when we published. Today it is at 73% — moving from 13 points below ProbGap to 9 points above it.
Sep 25, 2026
The market still says 65%. ProbGap remains at 38% — and Ottawa is putting less emphasis on “associate membership.”
October Fed hike odds have climbed from 51% to around 68%, moving past our published 61% forecast.
Sep 22, 2026
Trump says communication with Iran is continuing. It doesn't resolve the market — but it strengthens the case for keeping our forecast above it.
Reuters says crude is already flowing through the East–West Pipeline. But the prediction market requires an official Saudi announcement. We’re raising our forecast from 48% to 72%.
Hawkish Fed comments strengthen the case for another rate increase. The market has moved back toward ProbGap — but an 8-point gap remains.
Energy
Sep 20, 2026
3 min read
New damage assessments and fresh attacks around Yanbu have changed the picture. ProbGap cuts its forecast from 64% to 48% — but still sees a +13-point gap.
+2
Sep 16, 2026
Polymarket has surged to 67% for a restart by September 30 — effectively closing, and now slightly reversing, our original +17 point gap.
Forecast Update
Sep 15, 2026
The bill failed 49–50, far short of the 60 votes needed. The market has fallen to roughly 7%, and ProbGap now puts 2026 passage at just 5%.
Polymarket has surged from 17% to roughly 31% after a revised bipartisan push. ProbGap puts the chance at 24% — a −7 point gap ahead of today’s Senate vote.
